When some leaders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) from the South East geopolitical zone visited President Muhammadu Buhari at the Presidential Villa, in the wake of the violent killings in Benue State early January, the talk was more about 2023 than the forthcoming 2019 elections. The APC leaders adopted Buhari for the 2019 election, but the unwritten statement was all about 2013.
And around that, a theory of 4 is greater than 8 is emerging. It is a theory that would be given voice mainly in the South East of Nigeria and it is targeted at drawing the zone to the Buhari political kitty.
According to the theorists, the South East would realise its presidential ambition faster in the APC if it gives four more years to Buhari Presidency than wait on the PDP, which has already zoned 2019 to the North and whose candidate, if elected is likely to seek another four years in the 2023 elections, thus pushing the Eastern quest for the top job to 2027.
That assertion, to all intents and purposes, is a political gimmick. But gimmicks, gerrymandering and all that are welcome in politics. It is he who is being sold a piece of clay as gold that needs to shine his eyes.
First, let me tell our good brothers in the South East that living on the verbal theory such as above would simply amount to accepting the slave mentality. If the East sees itself as an integral stakeholder in the Nigerian polity, it is not by kowtowing to the man in power that you gain relevance. Rather, it is by emphasizing your right as a freeborn that gives you the right place.
Let me also remind us that the zoning arrangement being talked about is only known to the PDP. The APC does not have one. And that played out clearly in the Senate Presidency issue in 2015. Besides, the North West and the South West alliance produced the APC and the presidency is deemed to rotate in that order.
I‘ve heard another variant of the 2023 argument at a recent meeting. Somebody said that the South East kept all its “eggs in one basket” in 2015 and that it was a mistake. Today, the proponents of the argument say, the South East is being treated to the 97%/5% because of the 2015 mistake.
Was it a mistake that the South Easterners expressed their preference for the PDP in 2015? Obviously No. the people saw a preferred candidate and voted for him. If Buhari had appealed to the people one way or the other, he would also have got the votes from the zone. To turn around and claim that the zone put its “eggs” in one basket is not just slavish but defeatist argument.
Flowing from the theory above, should the South East adopt a Buhari so he would remove the curse of 97%/5%? My answer still remains a resounding NO. The people reserve the right to exercise their electoral rights freely. If Buhari believes he would punish them with only 5% dividends, so be it. But that should also tell the people to extend the scope of their alliances in a way that would get their preferred candidates into office at all levels.
And for those who subscribe to the 97%/5% or the “eggs in one basket” theory let me advert your minds to Section 14(1, 2,3) of the 1999 Constitution and direct special emphasis on 14 (3) thereof. Recall that Buhari and all elected officials swore to uphold the Constitution.
Section14 (3) reads: The composition of the Government of the Federation or any of its agencies and the conduct of its affairs shall be carried out in such a manner as to reflect the federal character of Nigeria and the need to promote national unity, and also to command national loyalty, thereby ensuring that there shall be no predominance of persons from a few State or from a few ethnic or other sectional groups in that Government or in any of its agencies.”
It is clear that the 97%/5% postulation can only thrive where the institutions are weak and the president is allowed to act the judge and the jury.
As for the South Easter presidency in 2023 proponents, let me state here that you don’t place something on nothing, like the legal minds would say. What are the indices from Buhari and the APC that suggests a liking for the Igbo candidate in the nearest future? If a regime is unable to trust the Igbo with positions like SGF, Service Chief or even commander of the Civil Defence, how does it suddenly grow to trust the zone with the most powerful position in the land?
Let me restate that no one man will give Igbo the Presidency of Nigeria, it is the Igbo who will work together with other Nigerians to produce a candidate that can win majority of the votes.
Perhaps, if anyone comes around the East of the Niger to mouth the 2023 presidency, you may need to remind them to learn from the experience of the South West.
In 2014/15, the South West took charge of the APC. The de facto leader of the party was Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He wrote the devolution of power principle into the party’s manifesto to appease the Yoruba. He ran the show and committed resources to the elections. When asked what Buhari promised him, he was said to have told those within the earshot “we will run the government together” By the time the government was constituted in 2015, the same Asiwaju could not produce a Minister or a Director General of note.
Now, if the party can deny what is written into its manifesto, why would it respect a tip of the tongue promise like the 2023 talk?
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2023: Before the Igbos are hooked
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